Anatomy of the American defeat in Afghanistan. Image via Wikipedia

The United States of America has lost the war in Afghanistan. It has also failed to win the peace in the Hindu Kush. It is leaving a much bigger mess that it had inheritied. Bharat had advised the US to attack both Pakistan and Afghanistan.  The US did not directly invade Pakistan, but gave Islamabad a few lollipops and infiltrated  the country and proliferated the state with spies and agents. During the chaos of the change in government, the Haqqani ilk stamped thousands of visas to US mercenaries and CIA agents.

The long term US strategy was to prop up Bharat, and create an Anti-China alliance forcing Pakistan to side with Bharat. Intense pressure was applied and is being applied to convince Pakistan to abandon the friendship with China and Iran and form an alliance led by Bharat. Even the likes of Zardari have been able to resist this. and its strategic partners therefore embarked upon a well-thought plan to gradually weaken Pakistan and its institutions politically, socially, economically and Keeping watch over Pakistan nukes and forcing Islamabad to accept India’s hegemony were other key objectives.

The US has had limited success in achieving its objective. It has not been able to denuclearize Pakistan, has been unable to drive a wedge into Sino-Pakistan relations and has been unable to convince the Pakistanis on forming an alliance with Delhi. Islamabad is under a lot of pressure from terrorists to make foreign policy adjustments, but has not buckled.

The Bharati role in Afghanistan has been limited to arts and crafts projects in and around Kabul–and most of the plans have been abandoned. No new projects are being started.

Instead of kowtowing to the US pressure, the youth have been radicalized and are Anti-American, rising under the leadership of Imran Khan who speaks their language. Khan is a natural byproduct of the hatred for drone attacks and the obsequious behavior of the Zardari regime. If Imran Khan did not exist, he would have been constructed.

Raymond Davis and the Abbottabad raid has woken up the Armed forces to the dangers of the infiltration and the ISI and the army is busy cataloging and then hunting down CIA spies. The Army decimated the foreign-propped insurgents in Swat region and in FATA, and rebels in Balochistan are being effectively dealt by the paramilitary forces.

The CIA infiltration is being confronted with zeal.  CIA agents under the guse of military  trainers have already been sent home and others are being hounded out. Three US military intelligence liaison centers in Peshawar and Quetta have been closed. The last two CIA’s Station Chiefs who were coordinating clandestine network have departed.

The CIA informants who helped CIA and US Navy Seals in conducting helicopter assault in Abbottabad have been detained for interrogation, have not released despite US  pressure, and are singing like canaries in a cage. Visas to Pakistan are being scrutinized by the ISI.  No US citizen can now travel from one city to the other without the knowledge and clearance of ISI.

The press is vocal and keeps a check on the government actions. Pakistan has been able to exponentially expand its nuclear arsenal and increase the number of nuclear palnts–really making the Bharatis and the Americans jittery. The new generation of Plutonium based miniaturized weapons are harder to track and easier to conceal. Kashmir remins at boiling point. Bharat has been unable to pullout a single soldier out of its over 700,000 troops deployed in occupied Kashmir.

Bharat is discussion Kashmir and has resumed dialogue with Pakistan on equal terms and not on its dictated terms.

Bin Laden’s ghost and the Talibs have avenged the death of OBL by downing a US Chinook helicopter carrying 31 US soldiers including 25 US Navy SEALs who had conducted the Abbottabad operation. This will expedite the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The US victory in eliminating Bin Laden gives the Obama Administration enough coverage to leave Afghanistan. The long term objectives of propping up the Northern Alliance, containing China, bulldozing Pakistan, threatening Iran, building Bharat as a counter-weight to Beijing, and  forcing Pakistan to comply to US demands—remain elusive and seem to have failed. The US bases that will stay behind will be run over by the Afghans and the US will only be bale to respond to Aircraft Carrier based plans and drones which will have to fly over Pakistan and Iranian territory to try to contain the Talib victories.